Predicting Runtime Distributions using Deep Neural Networks

Many state-of-the-art algorithms for solving hard combinatorial problems include elements of stochasticity that lead to high variations in runtime, even for a fixed problem instance, across runs with different pseudo-random number seeds. Knowledge about the runtime distributions (RTDs) of algorithms on given problem instances can be exploited in various meta-algorithmic procedures, such as algorithm selection, portfolios, and randomized restarts. Previous work has shown that machine learning can be used to individually predict mean, median and variance of RTDs. To establish a new state-of-the-art in predicting RTDs, we demonstrate that the parameters of an RTD should be learned jointly and that neural networks can do this well by directly optimizing the likelihood of an RTD given runtime observations. In an empirical study involving four algorithms for SAT solving and AI planning, we show that our neural networks predict the true RTDs of unseen instances better than previous methods. As an exemplary application of RTD predictions, we show that our RTD models also yield good predictions of running these algorithms in parallel.